## Probably more likely than probable – Reblog

This is a reblog from here Probably more likely than probable // Revolutions

What kind of probability are people talking about when they say something is “highly likely” or has “almost no chance”? The chart below, created by Reddit user zonination, visualizes the responses of 46 other Reddit users to “What probability would you assign to the phase: <phrase>” for various statements of probability. Each set of responses has been converted to a kernel destiny estimate and presented as a joyplot using R.

Somewhat surprisingly, the results from the Redditors hew quite closely to a similar study of 23 NATO intelligence officers in 2007. In that study, the officers — who were accustomed to reading intelligence reports with assertions of likelihood — were giving a similar task with the same descriptions of probability. The results, here presented as a dotplot, are quite similar.

For details on the analysis of the Redditors, including the data and R code behind the joyplot chart, check out the Github repository linked below.

Github (zonination): Perceptions of Probability and Numbers

## Intro to Data Science Talk

Yesterday I had the pleasure to give a community talk at Campus London as part of the events organised by General Assembly London. The place was fully packed and I was quite pleased to see that the audience was very engaged as they asked questions, made comments and great remarks.

As expected, the audience was quite varied from students interested to break into the field, to seasoned analysts and startup entrepreneurs. The questions were all very pertinent and I hope that the answers provided were useful to all of them.

The talk was effectively an introduction to what data science is, the tools used and opportunities and challenged in the field. You can find a handout of the slides here.